BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028

Russia’s economic growth has slowed down substantially.  We see annual GDP growth slowing further to around ½ percent in 2027 and 2028. Government spending is expected to increase further in the coming years to support the war effort. At the same time, economic imbalances and supply-side constraints will continue to limit growth potential. Consumption growth is projected to slow, while investment is expected to contract. The budget deficit will persist, and financing it will become more difficult. Balancing monetary and fiscal policies that are pulling in different directions will become increasingly challenging. Even so, a full-blown economic crisis in the immediate future is unlikely, and Russia can still maintain its current levels of production and raise sufficient financing to continue the war.

The Russian economy faces significant risks. As economic performance has weakened, the Russian economy has become increasingly vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Changes in the course of war, fluctuations in oil revenues, or a failure to strike an effective balance between monetary and fiscal policy could quickly result in weaker-than-expected economic growth and even push the economy into recession.

Reports BOFIT senior economist Heli Simola: “We expect Russian output growth to slow further, with the economy becoming increasingly vulnerable to various shocks. Russia can maintain the production and financing needed to make war, but it requires increasingly difficult policy choices. The risks of a weaker-than-expected economic performance are high."

The latest BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 is posted here:

https://www.bofit.fi/en/forecasting/latest-forecast-for-russia/

 

The forecast will be presented today in an English-language webinar starting at 4:00 p.m. (UTC +3). Registration for the webinar is open until 3:00 p.m. and can be completed here:

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/tapahtumat/kalenteri/tapahtumat/bofit/2026/2026-10-06-russia-forecast-webinar/

 

Further information:

• Senior economist Heli Simola, heli.simola@bof.fi, +358 9 183 2263
• Head of research Iikka Korhonen, iikka.korhonen@bof.fi, +358 9 183 2272